Climate Change and the Effect on New York City
The New York Chapter of USGBC gave a presentation on March 12 on the effects of climate change on New York City. Three presenters took us though the current predicted models, possible architectural responses to address the predicted effects, and finally what NYC has, is currently doing, and has planned to respond to these possible effects. In this entry, I will summarize their thoughts, and offer some of my own perspectives as well.
The speaker, Radley Horton, Ph.D. an associate research scientist from Columbia University, explained the impacts arising from the emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. As we know, there are always year to year variations, but over the past century, we have seen a general warming trend of several degrees Fahrenheit, with the past decade seeing the steepest rise in global temperatures.
Radley showed us three ranges of models -- one extreme, another slight, and a third model being an average of the first two. He wanted us to concentrate on the third model, which, he feels will be the most likely of the events.
In terms of average yearly temperature range:
Obviously, for NYC, especially the low-lying areas, such as lower Manhattan, and parts of Brooklyn, this would cause considerable concern, especially during storm surges. Even unusually high tides would cause significant flooding of basements, streets, and utility facilities.
Heat waves would be more frequent and much more severe, with as much as 8 days a year close to or above 100 degrees F. Ice and freezing rain will also be more common. We already witnessed this past winter, as most of our storms started as snow, and then changed over to freezing rain and ice. As we saw in the news, areas in Massachusetts, Ohio, Kentucky and upstate New York were especially hard hit by ice storms of such severity that were NEVER seen before, as far back as records have been kept.
The main effects for NYC include three areas: Strain on materials, increased peak electrical loads, and basement / sewer flooding. These effects are being monitored by degree-day data, as well.
Another area of concern is water supply quality and availability, as while overall precipitation is expected to increase, on the average, severe droughts are expected to occur as often as every eight years, versus the normal once or twice per 100 years.
Adam Yarinski, FAIA (Principal) gave us an insight into the efforts that architects are taking to deal with these impending events. He focused on the Manhattan's low-lying areas (the lower tip) and the Upper Harbor area between the Brooklyn Bridge, the Goethals Bridge and the Verazano Bridge. Adam showed us a GIS map of the area and the predicted water encroachment. Just a Category 1 hurricane would cause a ten foot storm surge and flood all of the low lying areas on the GIS map that he showed, with just a modest average rise in the current sea-levels. He pointed out through historical pictures taken over the past 100 years, how we have already had to change several harbor facilities, as water levels have already risen sufficiently to make this necessary.
Adam went on to present the Palisades Bay Project that he has been working on. This would provide dike-like protection of certain low-lying areas, while carefully allowing other to become essentially beneficial wet-lands. In this project, he also proposes archipaelagical island-like structures (possibly made of a geo-textile tube-like material) to be placed in strategic positions just off the tip of lower Manhattan. The purpose of this would be to reduce storm surge effect by the action of friction resistance to the water flow. At the present, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation would not allow the placement of these islands. He feels that these changes would benefit the estuary and water quality.
He went on to describe what he called the "Venice Effect." where ferry routes would need to be altered, due to harbor changes. Adam also further elaborated on the swale / applications and told us that this could actually create more green open spaces than we currently have.
The final presenter, Dasha Rettew, Partnership Manager for Government Relations, from the Climate Group described to us the combined actions that all levels of government have and are planning to take. The first was to break the climate response deadlock that was halting any response. The main culprit in her opinion is energy use from buildings, transportation and lighting. These are have already been targeted at the city level. She said that power generation, energy effects and alternative fuels are being studied, with two factors dictating the actions: Return on Investment and Positive Cash Flow. Two efforts, the PlaNYC and city council have addressed this at their meetings. Out of these meetings, a number of ideas are in the stages of being implemented. These include smart metering, increasing CAFE standards, having the Taxi and Limousine Commission use vehicles that average 30 mpg, reduction of emissions, green building code, and significant use of outdoor LED lighting.
She also made mention of Mayor Bloomberg's 30 percent target. This effort entails the replacement of 30,000 traffic signals with LED light sources, the reduction of COBRA head street lighting from 400 watt to 150 watt bulbs, the implementation of LED overhead street lighting, and a 50 to 80 percent reduction of carbon emissions.
Regarding lighting, this currently makes up 18 percent of electric use world-wide, and outdoor use is around eight percent.
By using LED lighting for outdoor use and in parking garages, we could save 50 to 80 percent of this usage and gain better quality light color rendition and visibility at the same time. At the present, LED is not quite as efficient as HID in terms of lumens per watt, but it is getting there. Also, as of now, the pay-back period would be 14 years, but this is expected to drop to 10 years as technology becomes better.
The current Federal Economic Stimulus Package has $3.2 billion alloted for energy efficiency.
One member of the audience made a VERY important point about many office buildings still leaving all lights burning for the entire night, and thought that an easy change here would be to have a city code to deal with this.
The speaker, Radley Horton, Ph.D. an associate research scientist from Columbia University, explained the impacts arising from the emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. As we know, there are always year to year variations, but over the past century, we have seen a general warming trend of several degrees Fahrenheit, with the past decade seeing the steepest rise in global temperatures.
Radley showed us three ranges of models -- one extreme, another slight, and a third model being an average of the first two. He wanted us to concentrate on the third model, which, he feels will be the most likely of the events.
In terms of average yearly temperature range:
- 2020 = 1.5 to 3.0 rise
- 2050 = 3.0 to 5.0 rise
- 2080 = 4.0 to 7.5 rise
- 2020 = 2 to 5 inches
- 2050 = 7 to 12 inches
- 2080 = 12 to 23 inches
Obviously, for NYC, especially the low-lying areas, such as lower Manhattan, and parts of Brooklyn, this would cause considerable concern, especially during storm surges. Even unusually high tides would cause significant flooding of basements, streets, and utility facilities.
Heat waves would be more frequent and much more severe, with as much as 8 days a year close to or above 100 degrees F. Ice and freezing rain will also be more common. We already witnessed this past winter, as most of our storms started as snow, and then changed over to freezing rain and ice. As we saw in the news, areas in Massachusetts, Ohio, Kentucky and upstate New York were especially hard hit by ice storms of such severity that were NEVER seen before, as far back as records have been kept.
The main effects for NYC include three areas: Strain on materials, increased peak electrical loads, and basement / sewer flooding. These effects are being monitored by degree-day data, as well.
Another area of concern is water supply quality and availability, as while overall precipitation is expected to increase, on the average, severe droughts are expected to occur as often as every eight years, versus the normal once or twice per 100 years.
Adam Yarinski, FAIA (Principal) gave us an insight into the efforts that architects are taking to deal with these impending events. He focused on the Manhattan's low-lying areas (the lower tip) and the Upper Harbor area between the Brooklyn Bridge, the Goethals Bridge and the Verazano Bridge. Adam showed us a GIS map of the area and the predicted water encroachment. Just a Category 1 hurricane would cause a ten foot storm surge and flood all of the low lying areas on the GIS map that he showed, with just a modest average rise in the current sea-levels. He pointed out through historical pictures taken over the past 100 years, how we have already had to change several harbor facilities, as water levels have already risen sufficiently to make this necessary.
Adam went on to present the Palisades Bay Project that he has been working on. This would provide dike-like protection of certain low-lying areas, while carefully allowing other to become essentially beneficial wet-lands. In this project, he also proposes archipaelagical island-like structures (possibly made of a geo-textile tube-like material) to be placed in strategic positions just off the tip of lower Manhattan. The purpose of this would be to reduce storm surge effect by the action of friction resistance to the water flow. At the present, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation would not allow the placement of these islands. He feels that these changes would benefit the estuary and water quality.
He went on to describe what he called the "Venice Effect." where ferry routes would need to be altered, due to harbor changes. Adam also further elaborated on the swale / applications and told us that this could actually create more green open spaces than we currently have.
The final presenter, Dasha Rettew, Partnership Manager for Government Relations, from the Climate Group described to us the combined actions that all levels of government have and are planning to take. The first was to break the climate response deadlock that was halting any response. The main culprit in her opinion is energy use from buildings, transportation and lighting. These are have already been targeted at the city level. She said that power generation, energy effects and alternative fuels are being studied, with two factors dictating the actions: Return on Investment and Positive Cash Flow. Two efforts, the PlaNYC and city council have addressed this at their meetings. Out of these meetings, a number of ideas are in the stages of being implemented. These include smart metering, increasing CAFE standards, having the Taxi and Limousine Commission use vehicles that average 30 mpg, reduction of emissions, green building code, and significant use of outdoor LED lighting.
She also made mention of Mayor Bloomberg's 30 percent target. This effort entails the replacement of 30,000 traffic signals with LED light sources, the reduction of COBRA head street lighting from 400 watt to 150 watt bulbs, the implementation of LED overhead street lighting, and a 50 to 80 percent reduction of carbon emissions.
Regarding lighting, this currently makes up 18 percent of electric use world-wide, and outdoor use is around eight percent.
By using LED lighting for outdoor use and in parking garages, we could save 50 to 80 percent of this usage and gain better quality light color rendition and visibility at the same time. At the present, LED is not quite as efficient as HID in terms of lumens per watt, but it is getting there. Also, as of now, the pay-back period would be 14 years, but this is expected to drop to 10 years as technology becomes better.
The current Federal Economic Stimulus Package has $3.2 billion alloted for energy efficiency.
One member of the audience made a VERY important point about many office buildings still leaving all lights burning for the entire night, and thought that an easy change here would be to have a city code to deal with this.
Posted by Alan L. Englander at 3/14/2009 2:54 PM 
Categories: Heat Waves, Temperature Change, Storm Surge, Barrier Islands, Climate Change, Carbon Emissions
Categories: Heat Waves, Temperature Change, Storm Surge, Barrier Islands, Climate Change, Carbon Emissions
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